A recent ranking by the green group Transport & Environment (T&E) reveals that only 10 out of 77 airlines are making significant efforts to transition to sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs). The remaining 67 airlines are either purchasing insufficient amounts of SAF, the wrong types, or have no plans to incorporate SAFs into their decarbonisation strategies. This raises serious concerns about the industry’s ability to mitigate its climate impact.
Key Findings
The ranking highlights that 87% of airlines are failing in their transition to SAFs. Air France-KLM, United Airlines, and Norwegian top the list for their commitments to e-kerosene or advanced and waste biofuels. IAG Group, which owns British Airways, ranks fourth, with a pledge to use 10% SAF by 2030, although it lacks a specific target for e-kerosene. Virgin Atlantic and Ryanair are in the D category, with 5 and 8 points respectively.
Issues with Current SAF Uptake
Currently, most airlines are using unsustainable crop-based biofuels, which account for over 30% of SAF agreements. E-kerosene, the most sustainable and scalable type of SAF, makes up less than 10% of these agreements. T&E emphasises the need for airlines to push fuel producers to prioritise more sustainable feedstocks.
Francesco Catte, SAF manager at T&E, stated, “Too few airlines are committing to truly sustainable fuels. The majority are either buying the wrong types of fuels or, worse still, no SAF at all. Airlines have to put their fist on the table to change this. They need to send the right signal to fuel suppliers that what is being sold to them will not make their flights green. Otherwise, they can wave goodbye to their net-zero goals.”
Role of Oil Companies
The study also highlights the insufficient investment by traditional oil producers in the transition to green fuels. Major oil companies like Eni, TotalEnergies, Shell, BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Sinopec, and Saudi Aramco are projected to produce only around 3 Mt of SAF per year by 2030, which is less than 3% of their current jet fuel output. Virtually none of these investments are in e-kerosene, with most SAFs being based on unscalable waste oils and fats or unsustainable virgin vegetable oils.
Catte added, “Oil companies are the missing piece of the puzzle in the green fuels ecosystem. They have gone unnoticed so far but their reluctance to invest into SAFs is hijacking the transition of the sector as a whole. Policy makers must get tougher and ensure oil majors are investing in SAFs, whilst also developing an industrial strategy for e-kerosene, to support this nascent industry with adequate funding and regulatory measures.”
Global SAF Uptake
SAF uptake across the world remains very low. In 2023, the airlines in the ranking consumed more than 1.6 billion barrels of fossil kerosene, compared to only 2.6 million barrels of SAF. The analysis projects that by 2030, airlines will have purchased enough SAF to meet only 1.2% of their fuel needs. North American airlines are expected to use 2.7% SAF by 2030, while European airlines will reach 1.3%.
Recommendations
To ensure the take-off of SAFs in the UK, T&E recommends prioritising e-fuels in the SAF revenue certainty mechanism. Oil companies should engage in the e-kerosene market by developing projects or investing in e-fuels plants. Countries without SAF mandates should establish them with robust sustainability criteria, and those with existing mandates should limit the use of unsustainable biofuels and set e-kerosene sub-targets.
The EU should complement the SAF mandate set by RefuelEU with incentives and regulatory measures to foster investment and production of e-kerosene. Airlines should focus on purchasing sustainable and scalable SAFs and support the e-kerosene market through early agreements and investments.
Conclusion
The airline industry’s transition to sustainable aviation fuels is crucial for meeting climate goals. However, the current uptake of SAFs is insufficient, and significant changes seem to be needed from all stakeholders.
