GMPB — March 20th — Airlines Challenge SAF Trajectory as Rail and Connectivity Policies Advance

GMPB — March 20th — Airlines Challenge SAF Trajectory as Rail and Connectivity Policies Advance

Headlines:

  • A4E calls for SAF cost relief, signals shift on eSAF mandate as aviation strategy debate intensifies
  • eFuel study questions EV rollout assumptions, points to continued role for liquid fuels
  • FS maintenance investment in Paris signals renewed push for cross-Channel rail competition
  • Commission study flags decarbonisation tensions in forthcoming revision of aviation State aid rules
  • Commission reshapes State aid rules to accelerate rail and multimodal shift in EU transport
  • MEPs push connectivity, rail and electrification to rebalance EU tourism flows
  • Electrification framed as energy security lever as EU debates automotive targets
  • EU standardisation programme flags multimodal operators, energy systems and batteries as priorities for green transition
  • Innovation Fund deployment lag undermines impact on emissions and competitiveness, auditors say
  • Member State calls for flexibility in battery rules, raises concerns over data burden in environment simplification talks

A4E calls for SAF cost relief, signals shift on eSAF mandate as aviation strategy debate intensifies

Airlines for Europe (A4E) has called for a recalibration of EU aviation policy, warning that rising regulatory costs and fuel mandates risk undermining competitiveness and connectivity, as heads of state and government meet in Brussels.

In a CEO declaration, the association states that regulatory costs for its members have tripled since 2014 to €15.5 billion annually and could reach €27.6 billion by 2030. It argues that EU airlines are increasingly exposed to higher costs than non-EU competitors, particularly due to climate-related measures.

A4E calls for aligning the EU emissions trading system (ETS) with the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), and warns that the current ETS application increases intra-EU ticket prices relative to routes outside the bloc.

On fuels, the group reiterates its support for sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) but raises concerns over the feasibility of the synthetic fuel sub-mandate under the ReFuelEU Aviation regulation. It states that projects having reached final investment decision are expected to deliver only 0.71 per cent of the volumes required under the 2030 eSAF mandate.

On that basis, A4E calls for postponing the eSAF sub-mandate, arguing that insufficient supply could lead to compliance penalties of €7 billion to €9 billion, with costs ultimately borne by passengers.

The position marks a shift in emphasis compared with earlier statements from A4E during the adoption of ReFuelEU Aviation in 2023, when the association described SAF as a “cornerstone” of aviation decarbonisation and welcomed the introduction of EU-wide mandates as providing investment certainty.

While A4E continues to support SAF deployment in principle, its latest intervention places greater weight on cost exposure and supply constraints, reflecting concerns over the pace of scale-up of advanced fuels, in particular, synthetic fuels.

Beyond fuels, the association raises concerns about the broader regulatory framework, including proposed revisions to EU261 passenger rights rules, which it says could increase costs and reduce connectivity, particularly at regional airports.

The declaration also calls for reforms to air traffic management and airport charging rules, alongside a broader “pro-competitiveness” aviation strategy.

The intervention comes as EU institutions prepare to update the EU Aviation Strategy, with tensions emerging between decarbonisation objectives, industrial capacity constraints and the cost burden borne by European carriers.

eFuel study questions EV rollout assumptions, points to continued role for liquid fuels

A study by the eFuel Alliance and Porsche Consulting argues that constraints affecting electric mobility and energy infrastructure could sustain demand for liquid fuels across the EU transport sector, challenging assumptions underpinning current electrification pathways.

The analysis draws on the European Commission’s impact assessment for the 2040 climate targets, which projects that around 37 percent of passenger cars, 62 percent of heavy goods vehicles and more than 80 percent of aviation and maritime transport will still rely on liquid fuels by 2040. Liquid fuels are expected to account for more than half of transport energy demand in 2050.

The study attributes this persistence to supply-side constraints across competing technologies. It identifies raw material availability, particularly lithium and nickel, as a near-term constraint for battery production, while grid expansion is described as a structural limitation for large-scale electrification.

On that basis, it states that current electric vehicle ramp-up scenarios “are not credible”, arguing that demand for liquid fuels from 2040 could exceed the Commission’s projections.

The study also maps potential supply. More than 500 hydrogen and eFuel projects have been announced globally, with over 120 companies planning to scale production by 2030. Around 300 of these projects target the transport sector and could deliver approximately 20 billion litres of eFuels by 2030, with production largely focused on eMethanol.

Under a full deployment scenario, the EU eFuel market could exceed 200 billion litres of petrol equivalent by 2045, according to the study. This would be sufficient to meet projected demand across aviation, maritime and road transport without competition between sectors, while also supporting the continued use of the existing vehicle fleet.

Ralf Diemer, executive director of the eFuel Alliance, said that “industrial scale production is what makes eFuels affordable”, adding that policy conditions would determine whether projects reach final investment decisions.

Project development remains limited. The study notes that only around 6 per cent of announced transport-related projects have reached a final investment decision, with financing conditions and regulatory uncertainty identified as key barriers.

The analysis identifies aviation and maritime transport as sectors where liquid fuels remain structurally necessary, while positioning eFuels in road transport as an option for the existing vehicle fleet alongside electrification.

It calls for measures to support deployment, including demand-side quotas, regulatory adjustments to production standards and increased use of EU-level funding instruments.

The study is published as EU institutions assess the balance between electrification and renewable fuels in the context of transport decarbonisation and the implementation of the EU’s climate targets.

FS maintenance investment in Paris signals renewed push for cross-Channel rail competition

FS Italiane Group’s decision to invest more than €80 million in a high-speed maintenance facility near Paris comes as competition for cross-Channel rail capacity intensifies, following regulatory constraints on depot access in the UK.

Trenitalia France has signed a 35-year lease with SNCF Réseau to develop a maintenance hub at Maisons Alfort Pompadour, expected to be operational by 2029 and capable of accommodating up to 25 trains. The facility is intended to support high speed operations in France and future services linking Paris and London through the Channel Tunnel.

The investment strengthens Trenitalia’s operational base in France at a time when access to key infrastructure on the UK side remains limited. In October 2025, the Office of Rail and Road approved Virgin Trains’ application for access to the Temple Mills International depot in east London, rejecting competing bids from Evolyn, Gemini and Trenitalia on capacity grounds.

The regulator concluded that available depot capacity could accommodate one credible new entrant or support Eurostar’s expansion plans, but not both simultaneously. Trenitalia’s proposal for London-Paris services was assessed as offering more limited consumer and economic benefits than rival bids and raised compatibility issues related to train length and maintenance infrastructure.

Against that background, the development of dedicated maintenance capacity in France positions Trenitalia to scale operations on continental routes and prepare for potential future entry into the UK market, should access constraints ease.

The Paris facility will include three maintenance tracks enabling simultaneous servicing, alongside cleaning and storage infrastructure, with round-the-clock operations planned. FS Italiane Group said the project forms part of its strategy to expand on key European high-speed corridors and develop competitive rail connections between major cities.

The announcement reflects broader efforts by rail operators to expand capacity and compete with aviation on cross-border routes, supported by EU decarbonisation objectives. However, infrastructure constraints, particularly at critical nodes such as maintenance depots and terminals, continue to shape the pace and structure of market entry on routes such as Paris-London.

The project is also expected to create around 100 jobs, including direct and indirect roles linked to maintenance and operational support.

Commission study flags decarbonisation tensions in forthcoming revision of aviation State aid rules

A study published by the European Commission in support of the forthcoming revision of the EU Guidelines on State Aid to Airports and Airlines highlights persistent structural weaknesses among regional airports and raises broader questions about how aviation support measures should interact with the EU’s climate and transport policy objectives.

The evaluation support study, prepared for the Commission by a consortium led by Lear with DIW and EY, examines how the current aviation State aid framework has functioned since its adoption in 2014 and whether it remains fit for purpose in a sector now shaped by the financial aftermath of the COVID 19 crisis and the growing policy pressure of the green transition.

The findings confirm that financial viability remains a structural challenge for much of the regional airport sector. According to the study, only around 54 per cent of regional airports sampled were cost-covering in 2024, compared with roughly 61 per cent in 2014. Regional airports are defined as those handling up to three million passengers annually.

High fixed costs, seasonality of traffic and limited non-aeronautical revenues continue to constrain profitability. The study estimates that the breakeven threshold for airports lies between approximately 506,000 and 684,000 passengers per year, though the authors note that the estimate is based on a limited dataset.

These structural challenges are central to the debate on the future of operating aid. The current aviation guidelines foresee the gradual phase-out of operating aid to regional airports by April 2027. However, consultations carried out for the study indicate that a majority of airports, public authorities and aviation industry associations support extending or adapting these provisions, arguing that the structural economics of smaller airports make full cost recovery unlikely.

From a mobility policy perspective, the study emphasises the continued role of regional airports in maintaining connectivity, particularly in peripheral, island and rural regions where alternative transport options remain limited. The closure of 35 commercial regional airports across Europe since 2014 illustrates the fragility of the sector. Simulations suggest such closures can lead to measurable declines in employment and regional economic activity, although impacts depend heavily on the availability of alternative transport infrastructure.

At the same time, the study places increasing attention on the role of airports within the decarbonisation of aviation. While airports themselves account for a relatively small share of aviation’s direct emissions, they play a crucial enabling role in the deployment of decarbonisation technologies and infrastructure. These include electrified ground handling operations, renewable energy deployment, environmental reporting systems and infrastructure supporting the use of sustainable aviation fuels.

Industry stakeholders consulted for the study broadly favour expanding State aid instruments to support decarbonisation-related investments at airports. Smaller regional airports in particular face financial and technical constraints in implementing climate-related infrastructure projects, including fuel supply systems and electrification of ground operations.

However, the study highlights divisions among stakeholders regarding the introduction of environmental conditionality within State aid rules. Environmental organisations strongly support linking public support to measurable climate outcomes. Airports, airlines and some public authorities also support conditionality in principle, but emphasise that any requirements must remain proportionate and flexible in order not to overburden smaller airports.

The interaction between aviation policy and rail policy emerges as another key dimension of the green transition debate. The study notes that high speed rail has already eroded the market share of aviation on several short haul routes where rail offers competitive travel times. In this context, State aid measures supporting airports or airlines could potentially distort competition with rail and undermine broader climate objectives.

While the current aviation guidelines already restrict start-up aid for routes where high-speed rail provides an equivalent connection, the study suggests that the interaction between the two modes may require closer scrutiny as rail networks expand and multimodal integration becomes a policy priority.

Conversely, several stakeholders point to opportunities for greater integration between airports and high-speed rail networks. Improved multimodal connectivity could reduce short-haul flights feeding hub airports while maintaining access to long-haul aviation services. However, the study warns that such integration must be carefully designed to avoid stimulating additional long-haul demand that could offset potential emission reductions.

The study also identifies growing investment needs linked to regulatory compliance and environmental requirements. Investment aid has already supported projects related to safety, security, digitalisation and climate transition. For smaller airports with limited commercial revenues, access to public support is likely to remain important for implementing decarbonisation measures.

Finally, the study points to concerns among stakeholders regarding the complexity of the existing aviation State aid framework. Airports and public authorities report that the rules often overlap with other State aid instruments, particularly the Climate, Energy and Environmental Aid Guidelines, creating administrative burdens and legal uncertainty.

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