Brussels, 18 November 2024 – A recent study has uncovered that Europe’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports are nearly a third more polluting than previously estimated, raising questions about the EU’s endorsement of LNG as a cleaner alternative to conventional shipping fuels. The research, conducted by Energy and Environmental Research Associates on behalf of Transport & Environment (T&E), reveals substantial discrepancies in the upstream emissions of LNG, which were underestimated in the EU’s FuelEU Maritime law.
The analysis indicates that LNG imports from major suppliers to the EU, including the US, Qatar, Russia, and Algeria, are almost as polluting as the heavy fuel oil they are intended to replace. According to the green group, LNG sourced from countries with lower emissions, such as Norway and the UK, also offer limited reductions. This discovery challenges the EU’s current policy on LNG as a transitional fuel for achieving sustainability in the shipping sector.
The FuelEU Maritime law, which assesses fuel emissions on a life-cycle basis, uses a standardised upstream emissions factor of 18.5 grams of CO₂ equivalent per megajoule (MJ) of energy. This factor does not account for the variability in emissions based on the fuel’s origin and production methods. T&E’s analysis shows that the actual emissions from LNG imported to Europe are 30% higher, at 24.4gCO₂e/MJ. This means a single large container ship running on LNG would emit an additional 2,731 tonnes of CO₂ equivalent annually.
Inesa Ulichina, shipping officer at T&E, highlighted the critical nature of these findings: “Fossil gas will never be sustainable and is even dirtier than previously thought. Extracting, transporting, and burning methane is a leaky business. This costly pursuit is leading major shipping companies to waste billions on a solution that won’t bring them any closer to their zero-emission goals. Instead, they should focus on investing in green e-fuels production. The EU and the IMO can stop incentivising fossil gas by fully taking into account its full lifecycle emissions – from the ground to the sea.”
T&E is urging the EU to amend the emissions factors in the FuelEU Maritime law to reflect the new scientific data. The regulation is scheduled to come into force at the beginning of 2025, when shipowners will start accounting for their fuels. The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) is also yet to determine the default emissions factors of different fuels, including LNG.
The study emphasises the need for standardised greenhouse gas (GHG) reporting practices to enhance accuracy and comparability across studies. It also highlights the importance of further research in countries like Trinidad and Tobago and Nigeria, where data is limited, and in nations where underreporting may occur due to insufficient regulatory oversight or monitoring capabilities.
Key findings from the study include:
- The U.S.A., Algeria, Russia, and Nigeria exhibited the highest well-to-tank (WtT) emissions, aligning with their positions as top contributors to global flaring volumes.
- Russia has adjusted its national emission reporting methods to present lower estimates, drawing criticism from UNFCCC reviewers.
- Countries with less regulatory oversight, inadequate monitoring equipment, ageing infrastructure, or other causes for equipment negligence and repair may have emissions that are underreported or inaccurately estimated.
- WtT processes that most significantly influence the carbon intensity of LNG and show substantial variation across export countries are flaring/venting, liquefaction, and transportation.
The study recommends a follow-up analysis to determine the weight of venting, flaring, and fugitive emissions on carbon intensities across countries and to assess how many studies incorporate measurements from satellites or other methodologies to measure and validate these emissions accurately.
As the EU progresses with its green shipping initiatives, it is essential to address these findings to ensure that the transition to cleaner fuels is based on accurate and comprehensive data.
