A recent study by Transport & Environment (T&E) has raised significant concerns about the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) proposed green fuels law. The study suggests that the law, intended to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from shipping, could inadvertently exacerbate the sector’s climate impact. The policy’s focus on biofuels may lead to increased deforestation and strain global food supplies, thereby undermining its environmental goals.
The IMO’s green fuels resolution aims to mitigate the shipping sector’s climate impact by promoting biofuels. However, the T&E study reveals that this strategy could backfire. By 2030, the law could result in an additional 270 million tonnes of GHG emissions compared to current levels. This increase would be driven primarily by the use of palm and soy oil, which are expected to constitute 60% of the biofuel mix. These crops are notorious for their role in deforestation, emitting up to three times more carbon than conventional shipping fuels when accounting for land clearance.
The study also highlights the potential strain on global food supplies. It estimates that up to 300 million bottles of vegetable oil could be diverted daily to fuel ships by 2030. This diversion would put significant pressure on grocery prices and threaten food security. The conversion of arable land to biofuel crops could further exacerbate this issue, as land previously used for farming would be repurposed for biofuel production. The study projects that 34 million hectares of farmland, an area equivalent to Germany, could be required to meet the increased biofuel demand from the shipping industry.
Moreover, the analysis underscores the limited availability of waste biofuels, such as used cooking oil and animal fats. These alternatives are projected to meet only a small fraction (2.5% to 3%) of the shipping industry’s biofuel demand due to constrained supply. This limitation highlights the need for more sustainable and scalable alternatives to achieve the IMO’s climate goals.
Constance Dijkstra, the shipping manager at T&E, has criticised the policy, stating, “Fuelling cargo ships with deforestation is counterproductive. Burning crops for fuel harms both the environment and global food security.” Major shipping companies and environmental NGOs have echoed these concerns, calling on the IMO to exclude unsustainable biofuels from its list of green alternatives. They advocate for the promotion of green e-fuels derived from green hydrogen instead.
The IMO’s 2023 Strategy on Reduction of GHG Emissions from Ships outlines ambitious goals to reduce carbon intensity by at least 40% by 2030. It also envisions a future where zero or near-zero GHG emission technologies constitute at least 5% of the energy used by international shipping. The strategy is aligned with the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goals, aiming to phase out GHG emissions as swiftly as possible.
While the IMO’s green fuels law represents a step towards reducing shipping emissions, the T&E study highlights the urgent need for a more nuanced approach. The IMO must carefully consider the broader environmental and socio-economic impacts of biofuels. It is crucial to foster sustainable alternatives that achieve climate objectives without compromising global food supplies. T&E urges the IMO to clearly define ‘zero’ and ‘near zero’ emission fuels and to exclude deforestation-linked biofuels from its framework. Additionally, they advocate for capping food-based biofuels and incentivising green e-fuels to ensure a sustainable future for the shipping industry. This balanced approach is essential to address the complex challenges of transitioning to green fuels while safeguarding environmental sustainability and food security.
